What Are The Odds.....

Of the JFK murder actually having been a conspiracy and YET also having
every piece of physical evidence in the whole case come back to the
feet of the one man who happens to own the rifle up on the 6th Floor
(and who was seen firing a shot at JFK's car)?


What Are The Odds.....

Of the Tippit murder actually having been committed by somebody other
than Lee Oswald and YET have every scrap of evidence come back to
Oswald for that murder too? (Including gobs of witnesses who fingered
the so-called "Patsy"; plus the fact that the murder weapon was in
possession of the "Patsy" when he was captured; plus the mere fact that
Oswald was in the exact same general area of the murder when picked
up.) Odds that he was actually an uninvolved "Patsy" given these
parameters? Must be pretty low indeed (even utilizing CT-skewed


What Are The Odds.....

Of there actually having been somewhere between 5 and 10 audible
gunshots (depending upon which crazy theory you wish to use) fired in
Dealey Plaza and YET have 100% (or very nearly 100%) of the
news-gathering people who were in a direct, and IMMEDIATE, position to
report the shooting to the world (via newswire, TV, etc.) hear EXACTLY
the number of shots that match the number of bullet shells found in the
Depository, and the EXACT number of shots that the plotters need to
have heard to hang their "Patsy"?

Anybody got an "Odds" calculator to gauge the above things?



The way most CTers want to think the "Patsy" plan was implemented (via
multiple shooters, front & rear)...it's my opinion that there is just
no way in heck that any pro hit men are going to set up Oswald in such
a reckless (and frankly, NEEDLESSLY-reckless) fashion.

A single "pro" hit man could have easily killed JFK with one or two
shots (probably just one) from Oswald's "nest", without a need at all
of clogging the works with needless other gunmen hiding all around
Dealey Plaza.

There is no possible way the conspirators could have ensured the
success of a multi-shooter plot to frame JUST Oswald in the minutes
during and after the shooting. No way. There are way too many
uncontrollable factors that could block the success of that One-Patsy

"Uncontrollable" items such as:

1.) A frontal shooter might very well have been seen by witnesses (and
to think that EVERY witness under the sun could be easily "bought",
"taken care of", and/or coerced by these plotters is, again, just too
much wishful thinking on the conspirators' part, IMO).

2.) A frontal shooter might strike other occupants in the car, or
strike somebody else in Dealey Plaza.

3.) The one Patsy (Oswald) could have easily, by pure accident and
happenstance, established a perfect alibi for himself at the time when
he was supposed to be on the 6th Floor shooting the President. And the
very fact that he did NOT have a usable alibi for exactly 12:30 PM is
absolutely remarkable IF he had really been wandering around the lower
floors of the Depository, as many CTers firmly believe; and even CTers
have GOT to admit, that from the CT/Patsy POV, Oswald's not having a
usable/believable/solid alibi is certainly, by far, the biggest piece
of LUCK in the whole "Patsy Plot". ....

These amazing Patsy Plotters just lucked out, evidently, in that Oswald
was not seen by a single person inside or outside the TSBD at precisely
the time of the assassination -- except by Howard Brennan, Ron Fischer,
and Robert Edwards, of course, who saw Oswald or a nicely-arranged
Oswald "imposter" in the Sniper's Nest at 12:30 or just seconds before

4.) And the likelihood that all of the non-TSBD bullets are going to
somehow get swept under the rug is extremely remote, especially in a
Bob Groden-like scenario. Mr. Groden (per his book "TKOAP"),
incredibly, has ZERO of the shots coming from the Oswald window, and a
total of up to TEN shots being fired...and ALL OF THEM from rifles
other than the one rifle these idiot plotters are going to attempt to
frame Oswald with! Could Groden's scenario BE any more reckless and
preposterous?! I doubt it.

5.) And a biggie, that most CTers evidently don't think could have ever
happened before 12:30 on Nov. 22nd -- The one Patsy (Mr. LHO) could
"get wise" to the plot that is brewing all around him and take measures
to guarantee he could never be blamed for the actual assassination of
John Kennedy.

When thinking about any "Frame Lee Oswald As The One Patsy" plan, I
just cannot visualize any professional assassins (even for a minute)
contemplating the use of multiple shooters; let alone some gunmen
firing from the Grassy Knoll, i.e., the exact opposite direction from
where their single dupe is supposed to be located.


Another "odds" oddity.....

If there's NOT a "SBT", then HOW on Earth did a SEPARATE gunshot to
JBC's back end up striking the Governor in pretty much the same
location where such a wound would be located if a SBT did exist?

Odds of the above occurring without a SBT? Can anyone hazard a guess?


What are these odds?.....

If the SBT is indeed incorrect, then we are forced to believe that not
just ONE, but TWO, rifle bullets failed to penetrate all the way
through the neck and back of JFK -- from probably high-powered weapons,
because WHY would any plotters trying to kill the President -- and no
doubt wanting to MAKE SURE THEY KILL HIM AT ALL COSTS -- utilize
anything BUT high-powered weaponry in such a murder attempt?

Logical? I say no, it is not.

If you wish to argue that perhaps ONE of the shots was a "dum-dum" of
some type, or that ONE shot was a misfire and therefore the velocity
entering Kennedy was severely reduced -- OK. But TWO such shots of this
kind that do not transit the soft flesh of JFK in the throat AND upper
back regions?

Odds please?


ALL THREE bullets that most CTers need to replace the SBT all get lost!
Or are ALL disposed of by evil plotters! In either instance, all of the
bullets that peppered Kennedy & Connally are never entered into any
kind of official record representing this murder case. (Via a theory
which has CE399 being a "plant", of course...as most CTers strangely

Odds please?


Of course, all CTers enjoy trashing Dr. Guinn's analysis and his HSCA
testimony, as the conspiracists consider Guinn's 1978 analysis to be
completely outdated. But what I'd like to know is this.....

Just exactly how likely (odds-wise) is it that Dr. Vincent P. Guinn
would testify to the effect that TWO specific bullets (that both very
likely came from the barrel of Oswald's C2766 rifle, via Guinn's NAA
results) were the only two bullets that can be linked to any of the
ballistics samples in the John Kennedy murder case and yet still NOT
have Oswald's Carcano doing all of the damage to the victims on

Even via 1970s-era NAA technology, what are the odds that Guinn's data
would end up revealing the likelihood that ONLY BULLETS FROM OSWALD'S

My guess is -- the odds of that occurring must be fairly low indeed.


A sampling of Dr. Guinn's HSCA testimony.....

MR. WOLF -- "Dr. Guinn, based on these results, do you have an opinion
as to what type of bullets these fragments were from?"

DR. GUINN -- "Once again, every one of these samples is in the same
range, which is an unusual range, as the background WCC
Mannlicher-Carcano samples that we have looked at from all four
production lots. These five [CE399, CE567, CE840, CE842, and CE843]
fall right in the midrange, in fact. They are not the highest; they are
not the lowest of the antimony range, and the same is true of the

MR. WOLF -- "It is your opinion then that these all are fragments from
WCC Mannlicher-Carcano bullets?"

DR. GUINN -- "I think that is their most likely origin, yes."

MR. WOLF -- "Can you, just from looking at the results, state what is
the number of bullets that these evidence specimens came from?"

DR. GUINN -- "Yes, sir, I can."

MR. WOLF -- "What is the number of bullets, in your opinion?"

DR. GUINN -- "These numbers correspond to two bullets. Two of the
samples have indistinguishable compositions, indicating that they came
from the same bullet, and the other three particles are evidently
samples from another bullet."

MR. WOLF -- "So it is your opinion that the evidence specimens
represent only evidence of two bullets, is that correct?"

DR. GUINN -- "Yes, sir, there is no evidence for three bullets, four
bullets, or anything more than two, but there is clear evidence that
there are two."


Head-Shot "Odds".....

1.) Bullet strikes JFK from the FRONT, moving 2000fps toward the REAR
of the Lincoln Continental limousine....and yet fragments from the
bullet reverse direction after contacting JFK's cranium, and end up in
the FRONT seat of the vehicle.

2.) Bullet strikes JFK from the FRONT, and somehow ALL the blood spray
and massive blood cloud coming out of JFK's head are thrown to the
FRONT of JFK's head; with absolutely NO blood visible at the supposed
EXITING point at the REAR of the head.

Odds of above 2 things occurring if head shot came from front ---
Approx. 0.0000%.


Mary Moorman And Her "Odds".....

What are the ODDS that Miss Moorman could have POSSIBLY actually
photographed the EXACT moment of the rifle being fired so that the
"muzzle flash" would still be visible in her picture?

I'd wager the odds are off the charts in favor of "improbable". Maybe
not "impossible", true, but man oh man, it sure would have been amazing
to have been able to capture that one tiny moment in time on a STILL
photographic image.


Howard Brennan And His "Odds".....

Given all the evidence in the case that corroborates Brennan's being
RIGHT when he identified Oswald as the TSBD sniper, the odds that
Brennan actually saw someone OTHER than Lee Harvey Oswald in that
window are extremely remote....to virtually non-existent.


What CTers can't answer (logical or believably) is -- IF the SBT is a
piece-of-shit Specter-created LNer Wet Dream -- then HOW on this Earth
did the Australian team of researchers manage to get so damn close to

Another "lucky break" for the Patsy-Framers (4 decades later even)? The
THREE different shooters on 11/22/63 shot up the two victims with three
guns (which are needed if the SBT is to be scrapped), but came SO CLOSE
to mimicking a SINGLE-bullet shooting that (in 2004) a real Carcano was
able to come within INCHES of duplicating EXACTLY what CE399 is said to
have done via the SBT.

Odds please?

We must be talking "O.J. odds" here! 1 in 57-billlion maybe? That
number sounds familiar. Let's use that one, for starters.


The "OWNER OF RIFLE PROBABLY USED IT ON NOV. 22" odds are really hard
to fight (logically-speaking) -- aren't they?.....

All bullets/fragments lead to C2766 (Oswald's very own). And please do
not ignore the LOGIC and ODDS of the following fact -- THE OWNER OF THE
after it was officially acquired by Oswald in late March of 1963).

Who else is MORE LIKELY to use Oswald's rifle than Lee Harvey Oswald
himself? Please inform us how that rifle-stealing episode came about
without LHO, Marina, or the Paines noticing it. I want to hear about

And, in lieu of "stealing" the weapon...I want to hear a believable CT
scenario that has Oswald intentionally bringing his own rifle to work
on the same day of the JFK parade with the intention of having somebody
ELSE use it. Was Oswald's cranium filled with nothing but rocks?!

No bullet holes on the victims indicate they were shot from the front.

Oswald's own actions, including the Tippit murder, coupled with the
ballistics evidence, indicate he most certainly shot JFK at 12:30 in

Witnesses who heard shots from MULTIPLE directions total -- 4 or 5!
Four or five people (five per Mr. McAdams' site) out of hundreds heard
shots from MORE THAN ONE location. This is virtually impossible if
shots came from BOTH the Depository and the Knoll area. And you're
fooling yourself (badly) if you overlook that very important statistic
re. the witnesses.

Yes, I fully realize that witness testimony is the LEAST likely to be
spot-on accurate -- but when you pile one witness on top of another
(until they total 104 witnesses by John McAdams' count via his research
on his site), and then you get 99 of those 104 people who said they did
NOT hear shots from varying locations -- well, IMO, at that point in
the game, I'm inclined to pay a little more attention to those numbers
(seeing as how the witness total goes into three digits).

Lee Harvey Oswald (alone) killed President John F. Kennedy and Officer
J.D. Tippit.

Live with it or not. It's up to you.

David Von Pein
January 2007