A brief evaluation of the bullet-fragment evidence, the NAA tests
done by
Dr. Guinn, and subsequent NAA studies


There are 5 total bullet specimens in question here:

1.) The stretcher bullet (CE399), positively from Oswald's rifle.

2.) One of the two front-seat limo fragments (CE567), positively
from Oswald's rifle.

3.) Three fragments taken from the right wrist of Texas Governor
John Connally (CE842).

4.) Fragments taken from President Kennedy's head (CE843).

5.) Fragments found underneath Nellie Connally's jump seat in the
limousine (CE840).

Dr. Vincent P. Guinn, in 1978, came to the conclusion, via his NAA
studies, that the above 5 bullet specimens very likely came from just
two individual bullets, with both of those bullets "most likely" being
Western Cartridge Company/Mannlicher-Carcano bullets.

And given the fact (which is ironclad and indisputable) that among
these 5 bullet specimens examined by Guinn there are positively TWO
distinguishable bullets that definitely came out of Lee Oswald's rifle
(CE139)....it's therefore rather easy to do the math from that point

Since CE567 obviously cannot be a part of CE399, this means that if
(as Guinn's evaluation indicates) there were two and only two bullets
in the mix that account for these five bullet specimens, then both of
those bullets were positively bullets that came out of Oswald's
Carcano rifle.

Guinn's breakdown of the two "batches" for the two WCC/MC bullets also
perfectly fits the LHO/LN scenario......

Via Guinn's data, one group from the 5 specimens contains ONLY the
Connally wrist fragments and CE399.

While the other "grouping" of 3 bullet fragments contains three items
that all are very likely to have been a part of the JFK head-shot
bullet -- e.g., CE567 from the front seat, the fragments from Kennedy's
head, and the small fragments found under Nellie's jump seat.

It adds up absolutely perfectly -- right down to the above-mentioned
"grouping" together of the fragments to form what amounts to TWO and
only TWO bullets from the rifle owned by Lee Harvey Oswald.

Some of Dr. Guinn's testimony:

DR. GUINN -- "Once again, every one of these samples [CE399, CE567,
CE840, CE842, & CE843] is in the same range, which is an unusual
range, as the background WCC Mannlicher-Carcano samples that we have
looked at from all four production lots. These five fall right in the
midrange, in fact. They are not the highest; they are not the lowest
of the antimony range, and the same is true of the silver."

MR. WOLF -- "It is your opinion then that these all are fragments from
WCC Mannlicher-Carcano bullets?"

DR. GUINN -- "I think that is their most likely origin, yes."



The more-recent NAA tests suggest that Guinn's analysis might not be
as definitive or exacting as originally thought. I certainly cannot
deny that fact.

But that's ALL that the newer NAA tests suggest. Those newer tests
certainly do not completely destroy the "Lone Assassin" scenario in

And I still want to know the answer to this logical question:

What do you suppose the odds are that Dr. Vincent Guinn could have
come to his rather detailed opinion of 2 bullets and only 2 bullets
being involved via his NAA study (with both bullets verifiably coming
from LHO's gun, and the grouping of the fragments also perfectly
aligning themselves into an LN-favoring position) and yet still have
THREE or more bullets actually being the true sources of those five
bullet specimens examined by Dr. Guinn in the late 1970s?

In other words...how on this Earth did the multiple shooters (shooting
at President Kennedy with multiple rifles) manage to get THAT LUCKY if
bullet specimens that really came from multiple weapons were examined
by Dr. Guinn and yet still (via 1970s technology) have all five
specimens miraculously determined to have come (per Guinn) from just
TWO Western Cartridge/Mannlicher-Carcano bullets from Lee Oswald's

Just based on ordinary common sense, aren't we talking "O.J. DNA" type
numbers here (i.e., odds that are overwhelmingly in favor of such a
multi-gun scenario having NOT occurred in Dealey Plaza at all on
November 22, 1963)?

In my opinion, yes....we are talking those kind of crazy kind of odds

In addition, let me add this "odds" observation......

What do you think the chances are that a multi-gun conspiracy took
place in Dealey Plaza, with bullets from more than just a single rifle
striking the victims in President Kennedy's car....and yet, after the
bullets stopped flying and the fragments and/or whole bullets were
examined, NOT A SINGLE BULLET OR FRAGMENT from any non-Oswald gun
turned out to be large enough to be tested in order to positively
eliminate Lee Harvey Oswald's rifle as the source for ALL of the
bullets and fragments that hit any of the victims on Elm Street?

Short of conspiracy theorists coming right out and calling Vincent
Guinn a bald-faced liar when he revealed his NAA results in 1978 (and
even taking into account the newer NAA studies that have been done
since '78 that have cast doubt on the exactitude of Guinn's
determinations), I cannot see how the conspiracists of the world can
fight the above-mentioned "odds" problem.

David Von Pein
September 5, 2007