JOHN McADAMS SAID:
On the History News Network, an essay from Max Holland and Johann Rush that puts the first shot in Dealey Plaza much earlier than anybody else has:
http://hnn.us/articles/35445.html
DAVID VON PEIN SAID:
An interesting theory.
Although such an early first shot would mean that John Connally's "first-shot right turn" (which IMO begins at about Z164) would have occurred approximately 3 to 4 seconds after he heard the first shot. ....
"We had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how far it was, heading down to get on the freeway....we had just made the turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right shoulder." -- John B. Connally
In one breath Connally says "150-200 feet"; but then says "we had just made the turn". So we have a choice there. Hard to know. Although Connally might consider two-thirds of a football field in distance the same as "just [after making] the turn". It's a subjective thing I suppose.
Of course, a first shot occurring when the limo was practically in the Elm/Houston intersection probably wouldn't go over too well with the many witnesses who claim that JFK was HIT by that first shot and threw his hands up to his throat almost immediately after being hit with that shot.
Such a "first-shot hit" to Kennedy would mean an absurdly lengthy delay for JFK to react to the "hit" -- about 6 to 7 seconds. As it is, a "hit" to JFK at Z190-Z200 (as many conspiracy theorists believe) equates to a still-too-long (IMO) delay in an initial JFK reaction of 2 seconds or so.
Plus, any type of "First Shot Hit JFK" theory (with the shot coming 11 seconds prior to the Z313 head shot, should any CTer wish to combine some elements of this new theory with their own theories) is utterly impossible anyway, given the fact we can see (via the Z-Film) that JFK has definitely NOT been hit as of Z187, because he's still smiling and waving in the Z180s.
My gut instinct is still telling me, though, that the Z160 first-shot timeline is closer to being correct -- based on Connally's "immediately" recognizing this shot as a rifle shot and his reaction of "instinctively" turning to his right as a result of this shot at approximately Z164 and also based on the "Rifle Always Pointing Southwest" manner in which Oswald pre-arranged those rifle-rest boxes in the window.
IMO, Oswald placed those boxes in that window in such a manner so that he had every intention from the get-go of only shooting at the President after the car was well onto Elm Street....which also makes sense from the standpoint that the Secret Service agents would, by that time, all have their backs to the assassin, making quick return fire very difficult.
Plus: What about James Tague's injury? Is the "traffic pole" shot supposed to also double as the Tague shot?
I know a lot of people favor the idea that a head-shot fragment hit James Tague by the Triple Underpass. But I just can't totally buy into that theory. That bullet was darn-near completely spent by the time it reached the windshield (which a large fragment couldn't even penetrate).
I just find it hard to believe that a fragment would have enough energy after striking JFK's head to get out to Tague's position on Main Street, chip that curb, and then send shards up to draw blood on Tague's cheek.
I don't completely rule out that possibility, but I favor the "first-shot miss at Z160 hit Tague" theory. It just makes more sense in the long run to me. YMMV.
Anyway, the "traffic pole" theory is an intriguing one. However, the Warren Commission Exhibit No. 886 doesn't seem to show any obstruction in the shooter's line of sight. Of course, if the picture had been snapped a second or so on either side of the "A" position in CE886, perhaps the traffic pole would be in the picture.
Here's a really good view of what Oswald would have had in his way (obstruction-wise) if he had fired a shot while the car was near the intersection of Elm & Houston (this is CE875, part of the Secret Service album of photos during the SS re-staging of events in December 1963):
Another thing that doesn't bode well for the very early first shot is when we compare the following two pictures (and the reactions of the Secret Service agents). In the Phil Willis slide, no SS men are turned toward the Book Depository in reaction to hearing a shot. In Jim Altgens' photo, two SS men are turned directly toward the TSBD.
Altgens' picture equates to about Zapruder frame #255, after the second (SBT) shot has gone through both victims. I think Willis' pic equates to Z202, which would be 5.17 seconds after any proposed "traffic pole" shot, and yet there's not a sign of "awareness" of this shot by the Secret Service. That's a pretty lengthy delay. ....
DAVID VON PEIN LATER SAID:
Abe Zapruder's WFAA interview is interesting too (in a manner that doesn't do Max Holland's theory any favors)....
"...As the President was coming down from Houston Street making its turn, it was about halfway down there, I heard a shot. And he slumped to the side, like this. Then I heard another shot or two, I couldn't say whether it was one or two, and I saw his head practically open up..." -- Abraham Zapruder; WFAA-TV interview; 11/22/63
ANDREW MASON SAID:
How, exactly, [does] Zapruder's recollection support a z160 first shot miss?
DAVID VON PEIN SAID:
It doesn't specifically do that. And I never claimed it did, did I?
My point was that Zapruder's WFAA account does harm to Holland's "11 Seconds In Dallas" theory....which it does, via Zapruder's words -- "About halfway down there, I heard a shot" [meaning the FIRST shot he heard, based on what he said just after that "halfway" quote].
But, as an aside, Zapruder's WFAA recollections certainly are closer to supporting a Z160 shot than a first shot that comes way down by the Elm/Houston intersection.
David Von Pein
February 17-22, 2007
